Sunday, March 13, 2005

 

First Impressions

Here's the bracket The Chicago Winner plays Albuquerque in the final four and Syracuse winner vs Austin..

Chicago Regional
1) Illinois vs 16) FDU
8) Texas vs 9) Nevada
5) Alabama vs 12) Wisconsin-Milwaukee
4) BC vs 13)Penn
6) LSU vs 11) UAB
3) Arizona vs 14)Utah St.
7) Southern Illinois vs 10) St Mary's (CA)
2) Oklahoma State vs 15) Southeast Louisiana

Albuquerque Regional
1) Washington vs 16) Montana
8) Pacific vs 9) Pittsburgh
5) Georgia Tech vs 12) George Washington
4) Louisville vs 13) Louisiana- Lafayette
6) Texas Tech vs 11) UCLA
3) Gonzaga vs 14)Winthrop
7) West Virginia vs 10) Creighton
2) Wake Forest vs 15)Chattanooga

Syracuse Regional
1) North Carolina vs 16) Oakland/ Alabama A&M
8)Minnesota vs 9) Iowa State
5) Villanova vs 12) New Mexico
4) Florida vs 13) Ohio
6) Wisconsin vs 11) Northern Iowa
3) Kansas vs 14) Bucknell
7) Charlotte vs 10) NC State
2) UConn vs 15) Central Florida

Austin Regional
1) Duke ve 16) Delaware St.
8) Stanford vs 9) Mississippi State
5) Michigan State vs 12) Old Dominion
4) Syracuse vs 13) Vermont
6) Utah vs 11) UTEP
3) Oklahoma vs 14) Niagara
7) Cincinnatti vs 10) Iowa
2) Kentucky vs 15) Eastern Kentucky

Also I did the S curve which is what the NCAA committee uses to place the teams (1 vs 64, 2 vs 63,etc). The problemis that the committee moves teams around and is not set to the numbers so this is not the official S curve. For example Georgia Tech may have been slotted as a a 6 seed and 21 on the S curve but may have been switched with Texas Tech because of rematches and conference matchups. We'll never know the official S curve, but here is what it looks like as this bracket played out.

1.Illinois
2.UNC
3.Duke
4.Washington
5.Wake Forest
6.Kentucky
7.UConn
8.Oklahoma St.
9.Arizona
10.Kansas
11.Oklahoma
12.Gonzaga
13.Lousiville
14.Syracuse
15.Florida
16.BC
17.Alabama
18.Nova
19.Michigan State
20.Georgia Tech
21.Texas Tech
22.Utah
23.Wiconsin
24.LSU
25.Southern Illinois
26.Charlotte
27.Cincy
28.West Virginia
29.Pacific
30.Stanford
31.Minnesota
32.Texas
33.Nevada
34.Iowa State
35.Miss. St.
36.Pitt
37.Creighton
38.Iowa
39.NC State
40.St Mary's
41.UAB
42.Northern Iowa
43.UTEP
44.UCLA
45.GW
46.Old Dominion
47.New Mexico
48.UW Milwaukee
49.Penn
50.Ohio
51.Vermont
52.UL Lafayette
53.Winthrop
54.Niagara
55.Bucknell
56.Utah St.
57.SE Louisiana
58.UCF
59.E.Kentucky
60.Chatanooga
61.Montana
62.Delaware St.
63.FDU
64.Oakland
65.Alabama A &M


A couple quick notes on the S curve.
(These are just observations that may be true based on a glimpse of the rankings)

Oklahoma State would have been in the UNC bracket but couldnt play Kansas so they get flipped to the Illinois regional with UConn going to Syracuse.

Louisville is the strongest 4 seed which means they could have been flipped from a 3 seed because of matchups. Georgia Tech is the weakest 5 which also means the could have been flipped from a 6 because of matchups.

Its not a big difference between Washington being a one seed or Wake Forest. They both get placed in the same region and I dont think either team would have an advantage with a one seed. You can make the argument that Wake has an easier path as the 2 seed than Washington has as the one seed.

Boston College goes from a possible one seed to the worst 4 seed in the span of 8 games.

Quick Syracuse notes

Already Seth Davis and Clark Kellogg of CBS and Jay Bilas, Steve Lavin, and Andy Katz of ESPN have picked SU for the final four. Interesting.

The Austin Regional has the most coaches with a national championship. 4. Tubby Smith, Jim Boeheim, Coach K, and Tom Izzo.




Deepest Regional
Albuquerque
People keep saying its the Syracuse Regional, but I think its the Albuquerque region. Washington, Wake Forest, Gonzaga, Louisville are the top 4 seeds. Louisville and Wake Forest could have made a case for a one seed. Georgia Tech, last years runner- up looms as the 5 seed. And Pitt is a 9 seed. This is the toughest bracket for whoever wins it. This wont be a cake walk for anyone in that region.

Most Wide Open Region
Austin
This is definitely Austin. You can make a case for any of the seeds between 1 through 6 to win this region. Each team has a flaw that will make people pick against them. I love this region as an SU fan

Biggest Snub
No one
I dont think anyone has a gripe on why they should be in the tournament. Notre Dame should have beat Rutgers. DePaul should have beaten UAB at least once. Buffalo had an 18 point lead on Ohio and blew it. Miami (OH) fizzled down the stretch. No one has any right to complain. They all had numerous chances to get in and none of them did it.

Biggest Seed Gripe
Louisville
The Cardinals won their conference regular season and tourney, lost 4 games and for their troubles got a 4 seed out west. To make it worse they have a potential matchup with Georgia Tech in round 2. Ouch, babe.

Upset specials
Villanova vs New Mexico
Syracuse vs Vermont

Two Big East teams are looking at difficult first round matches. Villanova gets a hot New Mexico team with one of the best player in college basketball in Danny Granger. Syracuse plays Vermont in round 1 in Worcester. If there is a team seeded low in the tourney that will give the SU zone trouble its Vermont. Taylor Coppenrath could give SU fits in the middle of the zone. Combine that with the game being close in proximity to Vermont, it could be a sleeper pick.

Best possible 2nd round matchup
Louisville vs Georgia Tech and Washington vs Pittsburgh.
The Louisville/Tech game may be the best game of the first weekend. Both teams rely heavily on guard play. Larry O'Bannon and Francisco Garciz vs Jarrett Jack, Will Bynum, and BJ Elder. Washington vs Pitt is intriguing. Washington hasnt played a team as physical as Pitt all season. Pitt will try to pound the Huskies into submission and the Huskies will try to up tempo the Panthers. Would be a fantastic clashing of styles

Best possible Sweet Sixteen Matchups
Arizona vs Oklahoma State and Syracuse vs Duke
Can Salim Stoudamire outplay John Lucas? Will Joey Graham handle Channing Frye? What an entertaining game that would be. And once and for all we can settle Gerry McNamara vs JJ Reddick. The SU zone against the Duke sharpshooters.

Best possible Elite 8 matchups
Illinois vs Oklahoma State and UNC vs Kansas
The knock on Illinois is that they are heavy on guard play and not a lot in the middle. Well Ivan McFarlin and Joey Graham will test that theory. And Roy Williams faces the team he left after the 2003 Final Four. Do I need to say more?

Best Possible Final Four
Illinois, Washington, UNC, Duke
All four number one seeds and not because they are the best teams. Duke/UNC would be a great semifinal game just based on the rivalry. Illinois/ Washington would be great because the scoreboard might break with how many points will be scored.

Best possible Championship Game
Illinois vs UNC
Now we can settle who the best team in the country is.
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